645am OBS, Wednesday, May 15th
Heavy ominous clouds and moderate to heavy rain. Light to moderate South to SW Konas. Flood Watch for all islands. Flood Adv Maui to Big Is.
Big Picture updated 5/12. Small NNW. New NNW building later. New SSW building slow. Tiny old SSW and micro-East trade wind swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, noon, 3pm; plus, the 5p (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Down and Dropping 13 sec NNW. Smooth straight offshore Southerlies. Sunset 1-2'+'; Rocky Pt 1-2'+; Pipe 2' or less. Chuns 1-2'+; Laniakea 1-2'+; Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'. Cloudy.West:
Slow Rising 17 sec SSW + Down and Dropping 13 sec SSW + Dropping NNW. It's slop chop onshores. Makaha is 0-1.5' maybe 2' and breaking close to shore. Clouds and rain and some runoff.Town:
Slow Rising 17 sec SSW + Down/Dropping 13 sec SSW. Surf's shredded from South konas. Waikiki reefs are 2'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-occ. 2'. Clouds and rain.Diamond Head:
Slow Rising 17 sec SSW + Down/Dropping 13 sec SSW. Rubbish. Surf's 1-2' at takeoff. Clouds and rain.Sandy's:
Slow Rising 17 sec SSW + Down/Dropping 13 sec SSW. Micro trade wind swell wrap. Surf's shredded onshores. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2'+. Shorebreak is 1-2'+. Clouds and rain.East Makapu'u:
Holding a 3' swell at 7 sec E trade wind nonevent. Smooth offshore 15-25mph SW konas. Surf's right on the beach 1-2'. Clouds and rain.Winds
5-15+mph South
5-15+mph South
Fickle winds
5-15+mph SSE
10-20mph East Trade
10-20mph ESE
North
Primary
Up & Rising 14s NWHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
Dropping 10s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good to excellent
South winds
Primary
Rising Fast 11s NWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair
6' midday
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Rising 16s NNWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & holding 12s NNWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Dropping 9s NNWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good offshores
West
Primary
Up & Rising 14s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Good to excellent
Primary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Rising Fast 11s NWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
poor to fair
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Secondary
Up & holding 17s SSWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Good
Primary
Holding 16s SSWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
Dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Poor onshore
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Up & holding 12s NNWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Poor-fair side-shores
South
Primary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Poor onshore
3' plus late afternoon
Primary
Up & Rising 19s SSWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Holding 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
poor to fair
+ Holding 6s wind swell; 4'+ later
Primary
Up & holding 17s SSWHaw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Secondary
Dropping 13s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Poor onshore
+ Dropping 6s wind swell
Primary
Holding 16s SSWHaw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Secondary
Rising Later 21s SHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Poor onshore
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SHaw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Secondary
Dropping 14s SSWHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Poor-fair side-shores
5' later
east
Primary
Holding 8s EHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 9s NEHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good offshores
South winds
Primary
Holding 7s EHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising 11s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair
North wrap, 2' later
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising Slow 7s EHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair
North wrap
Primary
Up & Rising 7s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy
Primary
Up & holding 7s EHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy
Current Swells:
Wednesday 05/15Primary: Up & Rising 14s NW surf @1-2+
Secondary: Up & Rising 17s SSW surf @1-2 occ 3
Third: Holding 8s E surf @1 occ 2
Marine Warnings:
Wednesday 05/15Flood watch all Island and Flood Adv. for Maui to Big Island
Sailing Report:
Wednesday 05/15Poor-fair due to weather and light to moderate S winds.
Diving Report:
Wednesday 05/15North shores: Fair due to small NW swell and lite S winds; West shores: Poor for most zones due to South winds and bumpy water...tiny surf but rising. South shores: Poor overall with small surf and onshore S winds plus new S swell to reach Adv levels Thursday-Friday.. East shores: Fair-good for a few zones... due to small surf and lite offshore S winds but weather and some isol. run off. .
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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